Raw material price cuts are hard to beat terminal demand is sluggish, and many listed paper companies have pre-loss performance in the semi-annual period

Raw material price cuts are hard to beat terminal demand is sluggish, and many listed paper companies have pre-loss performance in the semi-annual period

According to the statistics of Oriental Fortune Choice, as of the evening of July 14, among the 23 listed companies in the A-share paper industry, 10 listed paper companies have disclosed their semi-annual performance forecasts. Among them, there are 7 companies that are expected to lose performance in the first half of the year; Jingxing Paper and Yueyang Forest Paper, which are expected to achieve profitability, have a relatively large decline in performance compared with the same period last year; only 1 Qifeng New Materials is expected to increase their performance. forrest gump life is like a box of chocolates quote

According to the analysis of CICC, at the end of last year, the market’s expectations for the cost reduction and profitability elasticity of the paper industry have not been fulfilled as expected, and the downstream demand continues to be weak, which may be the core factor for the current industry’s difficulty in changing the situation. The profitability of paper companies is still at a historical low. .

Profitability of paper companies is still at a historical low

Based on the operating conditions of the 10 listed paper companies that have disclosed their semi-annual performance forecasts, the main reasons for the decline in the overall performance of the industry have been sluggish terminal demand and a slow pace of market recovery since 2023. Although the cost of papermaking raw materials such as wood pulp and wood chips has dropped sharply since the first half of the year, the profitability of papermaking companies has not been restored as scheduled. Instead, many companies stated in their performance forecasts that “the price of wood pulp, the main raw material, has dropped rapidly, resulting in The market price of finished products has further lost support.” russell chocolate box,cigarettes box

Take Bohui Paper and Chenming Paper, the major producers of white cardboard, as examples. Both companies are expected to report losses in the first half of the year. Chenming Paper stated that during the reporting period, due to the impact of the macroeconomic environment, the downstream demand was weak, resulting in a large year-on-year decrease in the company’s machine-made paper sales and prices, especially the continued decline in the market price of white cardboard, which had a greater impact on the company’s profitability. Bohui Paper also stated that although the cost of imported pulp and wood chips, the company’s main raw and auxiliary materials, has decreased compared with the same period last year in the first half of this year, the price of finished products has dropped even more due to the impact of the overall consumption environment. german chocolate box cake

According to data monitored by Zhuo Chuang Information, in the first half of 2023, the average price of domestic white cardboard is 4,794 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23.26% compared with the same period in 2022. As of the end of June this year, the market price of white cardboard was 4180 yuan / ton, which not only hit the low point of the year, but also refreshed the low point since 2015.

“The white cardboard market continued to decline in the first half of the year, which is directly related to the increase in supply, weakening demand and insufficient support of raw material costs.” Kong Xiangfen, an industry analyst at Zhuo Chuang Information, told the “Securities Daily” reporter that although the domestic economy in the first half of the year was running The environment has improved, but from the perspective of terminal consumption, the overall recovery progress is lower than expected. On the one hand, the domestic orders of downstream packaging factories are relatively small, and the continuity of new orders is insufficient; on the other hand, orders mainly for foreign trade have also decreased to varying degrees compared with the same period last year. sharalee box of chocolates youtube

In addition to the above-mentioned reasons, Shanying International, a leading enterprise in the field of boxboard and corrugated paper, also mentioned in the performance forecast that the sales price of the company’s main products have declined to varying degrees due to the impact of volume and price brought by overseas imported paper. hershey chocolate box,Cigarette Pre-Roll Box

Zhuo Chuang Information industry analyst Xu Ling told the “Securities Daily” reporter that starting from January 1 this year, my country has implemented a provisional import tax rate lower than the most-favored-nation tax rate for 1,020 commodities, among which the recycled cardboard paper has implemented zero tariffs, which has led to the implementation of zero tariffs this year. From January to May, the cumulative import volume of containerboard increased by 43.21% year-on-year. “In the face of this situation, paper mills can only lower the ex-factory price several times, narrow the arbitrage space for base paper at home and abroad, and reduce the enthusiasm for imports. This has become the main factor affecting the price reduction in the first half of the year.” Xu Ling said. starbucks box of hot chocolate

In response to the unfavorable situation in the industry, Shanying International, Nine Dragons Paper and other cardboard and corrugated paper head manufacturers shut down several times for maintenance in the first quarter of this year, trying to “actively adjust” on the supply side, but this also led to an increase in related costs, and the gross profit margin Year-on-year decline, it is difficult to support the near-end price and profit performance. horizon chocolate milk boxes

In the second half of the year, it is expected to rebound after finding the bottom

Facing the unfavorable situation this year, the domestic paper industry can only seek hope in the direction of improving its own industrial chain and fine-grained cost control.

In the performance forecast, Bohui Paper stated that the company is trying to seize market share by innovating products, adjusting product structure, and increasing the proportion of differentiated products. Shanying International also stated that after the company’s operating performance suffered a loss in the first quarter of this year, lean management was strengthened in the second quarter, and the operating rate increased compared with the first quarter. In addition, domestic sales and gross profit margins increased in the second quarter, and the company’s operating performance was continuously repaired.

As for the improvement that may be brought about by the cost side, Chenming Paper said that due to the relatively lagged improvement in the cost side, the cost of machine-made paper in the first half of the year was still higher than that of the same period last year, and the effect will be reflected in the second half of the year. starbucks hot chocolate box

In the first half of the year, a number of leading paper companies further strengthened their layout in the entire industrial chain. For example, Huatai plans to raise funds through the issuance of convertible bonds to build a chemical wood pulp project with an annual output of 700,000 tons. This move is considered by the industry as not only an important step for the company to promote the process of pulp and paper integration, but also an important part of filling the gap with other domestic leading paper companies. la chocolate box

With regard to the secondary market trend of the paper sector in the second half of the year, CICC believes that the expectations for this sector can be more optimistic. “The demand for papermaking is about to enter the traditional peak season, and at the same time, the active adjustment of the supply side is also on the rise. In the third quarter of this year, the price of papermaking is expected to go through a process of bottoming out and then rebounding.”Child Resistant box

Kong Xiangfen told the “Securities Daily” reporter that even the white cardboard industry, which was in the worst situation in the first half of the year, from the perspective of demand, the domestic economy is expected to continue to improve marginally in the second half of the year, boost terminal consumption, and feed back to the white cardboard market. Superimposed on the festive effects of several festivals in the second half of the year, market orders are expected to be released, which may drive demand recovery. life is box of chocolates

From the perspective of inventory, the current destocking of the paper industry is still going on, and the current inventory has dropped to a historical low. CICC believes that the short-term destocking trend will continue, but if the demand recovery in the second half of the year is expected to be fulfilled, it is expected to accelerate the paper industry into an upward boom period of active inventory replenishment, resonate with the demand cycle, support the upward trend of paper prices, and help paper enterprises recover profit.